Australia's Strategic Pivot: Embracing Indonesia's Rising Influence

Recognizing Indonesia’s Strategic Position

For over a decade, there have been clear indications that Australia is steadily losing its diplomatic footing and influence in Indonesia. This is particularly alarming given Indonesia’s crucial location and rising influence within the Indo-Pacific region. The recent endeavors of global powers such as China and Russia to establish a stronger presence in Indonesia spotlight the necessity for Australia to reinforce its relations.

Indonesia’s geopolitical significance has grown in tandem with its economic prowess and increased influence on the international stage. The nation’s pivotal location along Australia’s northern approaches is of strategic importance. As noted by Janes, Russia’s recent request for aircraft access to the Manuhua airbase symbolizes escalating international competition in the region.

Shifts in Indonesia’s Political Landscape

In recent years, Jakarta’s foreign policy has become increasingly aligned with Beijing. Under President Joko Widodo, Indonesia placed a higher premium on economic growth, which was pursued through heightened economic cooperation with China. Widodo’s policy emphasized trade and investment, sidelining democratic norms and leadership roles in regional dialogues.

Now, under President Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s foreign policy shows an unpredictable shift. His administration appears less inclined to align strictly with democratic principles and more open to external authoritarian partnerships, manifesting in moves such as Indonesia’s anticipated participation in BRICS and naval exercises with Russia.

Australia’s Response and Reflection

Australia must face its own role in this diplomatic drift. The strategic choice to procure nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS agreement has been met with apprehension in Southeast Asia, highlighting a broader regional mistrust. Furthermore, Australia’s foreign policy strategies have traditionally not prioritized deep, enduring engagements with Indonesia, something akin to what China has cultivated through longstanding diplomatic efforts.

For Australia, repositioning its diplomatic strategy entails rekindling interpersonal and professional networks, fostering language learning, and nurturing Indonesia-literate Australians. Future Australians adept in Indonesian affairs could be the key to rebuilding trust and reinforcing relationships.

Towards a Balanced Partnership

Acknowledging the geopolitical shifts, especially under uncertain global leadership dynamics, is vital. It’s time for Canberra to devise innovative strategies that leverage deep ties through defense, business, education, and diplomacy. Reinforcing Australia’s presence in Indonesia and aligning mutual interests could prevent further erosion of influence and avert strategic pitfalls associated with deeper Sino-Indonesian military cooperation.

As geopolitical dynamics continue to evolve, Australia’s foresight in strengthening ties with Indonesia will serve as a cornerstone in maintaining balanced regional influence. According to Middle East Transparent, the time to act is now, to avoid a strategic quagmire in the Indo-Pacific.